Use of expert judgment in exposure assessment: Part 2. Calibration of expert judgments about personal exposures to benzene
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چکیده
منابع مشابه
Calibration of Expert Judgments in Counterterrorism Risk Assessment
The goal of this research is to develop and verify elicitation methods to assess counterterrorism values that could be of interest for the purpose of planning defensive strategies (but are difficult to estimate because of insufficient historical data) by combining the judgments of multiple domain experts. In particular, the project focused on producing reliable estimates from the opinions of mu...
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Most models of aggregating expert judgments assume that there is some precise probability distribution characterizing the system behavior and expert information allows us to compute parameters of this distribution. However, judgments elicited from experts are usually imprecise and unreliable due to the limited precision of human assessments, and any assumption concerning a certain distribution ...
متن کاملExpert Judgment in Risk Analysis
Experts are often used to provide uncertainty distributions in risk analyses. They play an importantrole when insufficient data exist for quantification, or when the available data or models are conflicting. Multiplesteps are required in constructing a successful expert judgment process. These steps include selecting andframing the issues, identifying the experts, deciding upon an o...
متن کاملElicitation, assessment, and pooling of expert judgments using possibility theory
The problem of modelling expert knowledge about numerical parameters in the field of reliability is reconsidered in the framework of possibility theory. Usually expert opinions about quantities such as failure rates are modelled, assessed and pooled in the setting of probability theory. This approach does not seem to always be natural since probabilistic information looks too rich to be current...
متن کاملA Bayesian Model for Rare Event Risk Assessment Using Expert Judgment about Paired Scenario Comparisons
When challenged with understanding complex, technological systems, managers often use analysis to characterize risk. Managers use this information to design projects, develop policy, and allocate resources in order to mitigate system risk. This paper presents a Bayesian risk analysis methodology for combining expert judgment with the manager’s prior system knowledge to allow identification of r...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology
سال: 2003
ISSN: 1559-0631,1559-064X
DOI: 10.1038/sj.jea.7500253